Data desk · 2026 cycle
2026 primary elections by the numbers
Last updated: November 13, 2026
Only 22.1% of possible primaries were contested in 2026, and national midterm primary turnout reached just 23.3%.
The Primary Desk collects the strongest published 2026 primary statistics in one place, each with its source. Together they show why the primary matters: few races are contested, few voters take part, and in many districts the first round decides the winner before November.
How competitive were 2026 primaries?
Not very. Ballotpedia found 22.1% of all possible primaries were contested in 2026. Of the 5,613 incumbents who filed for re-election, 25.5% faced a contested primary, almost exactly the 25.6% average of the three preceding cycles.
The headline numbers
- 22.1%
- Possible primaries that were contested in 2026 (Ballotpedia).
- 23.3%
- National midterm primary turnout in 2026 (Bipartisan Policy Center).
- 32.5%
- State legislative seats on track to lack one major party in November (MultiState).
- 3.4%
- Sitting legislators who lost their primaries, 174 of 5,111 (MultiState).
Primary turnout: where top-two states stand
The Bipartisan Policy Center reports that 12 states met or exceeded a 30% midterm primary turnout goal: Alaska, California, Colorado, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Only Oregon and California reached 35%.
All three states with statewide top-two or top-four primaries, Alaska, California, and Washington, made the 30% list. Colorado, a semi-open state, did too. Read more on which states have top-two primaries.
2026 vs historical averages
| Measure | 2026 | Historical average | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legislative seats lacking one major party | 32.5% | 38.0% (even years since 2010) | MultiState |
| Seats with only a Republican | 12.5% | 19.4% | MultiState |
| Seats with only a Democrat | 20.0% | 18.6% | MultiState |
| Incumbent legislators losing primaries | 3.4% | 2.9% (since 2010) | MultiState |
| Incumbents facing contested primaries | 25.5% | 25.6% (three prior cycles) | Ballotpedia |
What the numbers mean for open primaries
When about a third of legislative seats lack a major-party contest in November, the primary is the only real election for those seats. MultiState notes that most of the drop in uncontested seats since past cycles comes from Democrats running in districts they used to concede. The Open, All-Candidate Primaries explainer goes further, reporting that over 80% of elections are no longer competitive in the general election.
In a closed primary state, voters who are not enrolled in a party have no say in those deciding rounds. That is the core argument of New York's Rieckhoff v. Berger and of the wider push for open primaries.
Questions about the numbers
See all 47 questions in the FAQWhy do primary elections matter so much?
In most districts the primary is the real contest. The Open, All-Candidate Primaries explainer states that over 80% of elections are no longer competitive in the general election, and the share of races decided before the general is 83%. When the primary decides the seat, whoever can vote in it decides the winner.
Do open primaries increase primary turnout?
The evidence is suggestive, not settled. The Bipartisan Policy Center states national midterm primary turnout reached 23.3% in 2026, and only Oregon and California met its 35% goal. Twelve states reached 30%, including all three states with statewide top-two or top-four primaries: Alaska, California, and Washington.
How many Americans are locked out of primary elections?
Estimates vary by method. The open primaries campaign states more than 26 million voters are locked out, and the national petition with Open Primaries cites 30 million. The voter map counts 18.2 million registered independents across the 15 closed primary states. Each figure counts a different group, so compare like with like.
How many independent voters are there in the U.S.?
Our national voter data counts about 63 million registered voters who are independent or unaffiliated, 28.9% of roughly 218.3 million registered voters. That is close to the 69.6 million registered Republicans in the same data. Measured by self-identification instead of registration, the open primaries page cites 47% of Americans as independent.
Do people join a party just to vote in its primary?
Many do. The Rieckhoff v. Berger case page states that up to 40% of registered Democrats in New York City joined the party only so they could vote in its primary. Those voters are counted as party members even though their reason for enrolling was access to a ballot, which reformers say hides independent sentiment.
Your next step
Support open primaries first. Then explore More Choice Voting.
Opening the primary is the reform every other change builds on. Add your name, then read how More Choice Voting takes the next step.